“Scranton versus Park Avenue,” the way Joe Biden described the recent presidential race. He slammed billionaires through the tax cut. He also touted that he is nothing but a school graduate and not another Ivy Leaguer sitting in Oval Office.
There was an economic populist message structured and adopted by Joe Biden’s campaign, and it was a few months before Election Day. The message majorly focused directly on white working-class voters. The main aim was to peel off a tiny portion of Donald Trump’s base.
Despite Joe Biden’s victory in the election, the same democratic white voters who remained loyal to the president without holding college degrees remained loyal. For Joe Biden, his victory in battleground states is nothing but growing support he achieved in affluent suburbs mainly around Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Detroit. These are the cities where president-elect Biden successfully expanded margins through his new Democratic stronghold. These are places that are filled with white voters with college degrees.
Education polarization-2020 election; the education polarization seems to be widened in the 2020 election. A sizeable urban-rural divide came to define American politics and resulted in a mixed bag for Democrats.
‘There is one big thing to be noted in the election, and that is education polarization. The result showed that the gap between non-college and college-educated voters increased rather than decreasing as per predictions by-polls.’ said David Shor. David is a Democratic data and polling expert. In this cycle, he advised most of the liberal political action committees. Of course, Democrats were treaded water primarily in least-educated areas but gained the highest in educated regions.
Even though Joe Biden won by over 6 million votes, Democrats were not expecting control gaining in Senate. They failed to flip a single state legislature, and apart from that, they lost many House seats. They experienced rejections majorly in white working-class voters, and that happened in rural areas as well. Earlier, they were viewed as a party for working people, but not Democrats are entirely relying on the Whole Foods shopper.
In the meantime, there was a clear slip of support observed among Black voters who were treated as their most loyal constituency and even among Latino voters. There is an overwhelmingly win of 87-12 percent among Black voters by Biden, but there is a growth in Trump support by 4 percentage points than 2016.
The shift was seemed to be more significant, especially among Hispanic voters. Overall, Biden won Latino voters, but Trump performed at least seven percentage points better than the results four years ago. There is an improvement in margins by Trump in 78 out of 100 Latino majority countries.
In the last few years, Democrats always expressed their confidence towards a less-white and increasingly diverse electorate. They thought the same would give an edge for the long-term over Republicans. But, now, some of the party members have concerns: They ended up at a disadvantage just because they relied on suburbanites and urbanites electorally to hold on to the House, capturing the Senate, and for retaining the presidency.
‘Now, it doesn’t seem that Democrats have a choice.’ The person who built Barack Obama’s campaign forecasting system in the year 2012 election, Shor says, ‘I felt that the demographics have seemed to stack against Democrats under the current coalition of the party.’
The reason behind the same is ‘Senate representation, and the Electoral College are biased towards voters present in less populated states and the place where republicans dominate.’He added, ‘to gain control of the Senate, Democrats may have to win over 54 percent of the popular votes for coming six years, and by that, they can keep control of the House.’ Now, Democrats should focus on winning mostly white and rural states like Montana and Iowa, which can change the current trend. Shor predicted before that Joe Biden needs to win popular votes by 4 percent, resulting in a comfortable Electoral College victory.
But, the popular vote win was 51%-47.2%. Shor said, ‘currently, it is mathematically impossible to wield electoral power with the existing coalition. Many people in the party are completely uncomfortable with the upcoming implications behind the idea of adopting a maximalist attempt to appeal to working-class voters.’
He adds, ‘we don’t have a choice. To move in the path to hold power, we have to approach voters who voted twice for Trump in Montana to vote for us. If we don’t approach in this way, we will not pass any laws.’
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